The news is not upbeat, but . . . . .

We, as a micro-version of the retained search industry, is seeing some interesting trends. While the data from varying studies is all over in terms of direction, search firms like Abeln, Magy, Underberg & Associates that work in different locations/cities are seeing some positive economic signs.

Incremental Gains in Manufacturing

Our manufacturing clients, regardless of specific product line, have been reporting incrementally improving results - since November 2009. While not back to pre-recession levels, they are seeing positive signs of improvement.

Unemployment level for people with a 4-year college degree (and over age 24)

We reported this in a past Blog entry - while today we learned of a 'lowered' unemployment rate (to 9.5%), we also learned that the rate for the category listed above dropped to 4.4% (see http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm). In any economic model, this is considered full employment.

What trends ARE we seeing?

The retained search industry is often considered a 6-month leading indicator of the economy. Here is what we are seeing:

1. Pent up demand: companies are starting to fill positions that were budgeted for in late 2008 (for filling in 2009). The initiatives that were to be started are coming back.
2. Operational excellence and revenue generation: operations and sales (high-level individual contributors or leaders) are commonly the two functional areas that lead companies out of a recession. We are seeing those positions from our clients.
3. Retirements are being talked about again: when the Dow was at 6500, people postponed their retirement plans. When it got to 10,000 (regardless of this past week!), these discussions started again. Companies need to back-fill these key roles.
4. Difficulty filling roles: as mentioned in the past, companies are having difficulty finding people to fill their key roles. We are seeing more searches where the client is not seeing what they want through their web postings and advertisements. Simply put, they are again turning to search.

Is this a trend or a short-term 'blip'?

I wish my crystal ball was clearer . . . . . we have been seeing the above trends since March 1st - four full months. Interestingly, the clients that came to us in March had been seeing their business incrementally increase for four months, for them starting the prior November (2009). We'll commit to keeping you up on what we are seeing. Stay tuned!